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Spot the Edge

Cut the Noise. Find the Edge.

Markets are noisy. Our models show where the price is fair.

Odds shift, margins hide and opinions pile up. BookieStats separates the noise from the signal by putting bookie odds next to fair odds.

  • Bookie 2.00Fair 1.67Edge +20%
  • Bookie 1.50Fair 1.67Edge −10%
Illustration with sample prices, not live odds.
Spot the Edge
BookieScan Where we disagree with the market
Home side v Away side Over 2.5 goals · full time
Our fair odds 1.85
BookmakerPricevs fair
Bookmaker A2.05+0.20
Bookmaker B1.98+0.13
Bookmaker C1.90+0.05
Bookmaker D1.80−0.05
Odds scale from 1.70 to 2.10: our fair odds of 1.85 against bookmaker prices from 1.80 to 2.05, the widest gap 0.20 gap +0.20 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10
Illustration with sample prices, not live odds. our fair odds · bookmaker prices
How it works

From match data to fair odds, in three steps.

  1. Data

    Fixtures, lineups, stats and bookmaker prices, collected all day.

  2. Model

    Our football model turns that data into fair odds for each outcome.

  3. Fair odds vs market

    Side by side with each bookmaker's price. Where they differ, you see where we disagree with the market.

Track record

Every pick counted. Wins and losses.

The model is judged on all of its picks, in public, never on a selection of wins.

Settled picks1,000 before a market counts as proven
Illustration with sample picks, not our results.

  • Nothing hiddenEvery pick stays on the record, won or lost.

  • Logged before kick-offEach pick is recorded with its price and time before the match starts.

  • Paper picks firstNo market is called proven until the evidence holds up.

Coverage

Football only, across leagues and markets.

Leagues

  • Premier League
  • La Liga
  • Bundesliga
  • Serie A
  • Ligue 1
  • Champions League
  • Europa League
  • and more leagues

Markets

85football markets

  • Match result
  • Handicaps
  • Goals
  • Cards
  • Player props
  • and more

See the model's view for yourself.

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